There may be a lot of truth in the report, but it still sounds a lot like the National Weather Service is seeking to turn away blame from its own doorstep in the case of the tornado-related deaths in Joplin, Missouri. The forecasters certainly are not to blame for the deaths. It was a massive tornado.
Still, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has been studying the data concerning the alert time and messages preceding the devastating event on May 22, 2011. A report issued on Tuesday puts a great deal of blame on Joplin residents who initially failed to respond to the tornado sirens.
Any resident of the MidSouth will testify to the fact that the sirens sound early and often, and are largely ignored until verified by a second source. Why would a potentially life-saving warning be ignored in an off-hand manner?
Too often, the sirens sound for what appears to be no apparent reason. Sirens in the dead of night. Sirens in the afternoon. Sirens when there are no visible clouds in the sky. Sirens that trail off into post-wailing silence without so much as a thunderclap to follow.
There is an idiom that grew from one of Aesop’s Fables – in fact there is more than one example of the Boy who cried Wolf! – a story which – when reduced to its most simplistic moral – states “a liar will not be believed.”
Not that the NWS is a pack of liars, but erring on the side of cautious is the norm, even to the extent of forecasters defending their constant warnings to the point of apology. Even the National Weather Service forecasters would admit that the great majority of tornado warnings amount to nothing, after all.
The NWS says Joplin residents chose to ignore the early warnings that had gone out well ahead of the devastating storm. 162 persons died in the massive twister or from the results of injuries suffered during the storm.
The report says the NWS “performed in an exemplary manner” and saved many lives through its warnings and emergency management. According to the Tuesday report, “the vast majority of Joplin residents” failed to respond to the first siren due to what is described as “an apparent widespread disregard” for the warning system.
“The majority of surveyed Joplin residents did not immediately go to shelter upon hearing the initial warning,” the report claims, and notes, “Instead, the majority of Joplin residents did not take protective action until processing additional credible confirmation of the threat and its magnitude from a non-routine, extraordinary risk trigger.”
There is no reason to assess blame for deaths in situations such as the Joplin tornado, but it should provide an opportunity to assess ways to prevent future tragedies. Fewer false alarms will result in a greater attention by the public when the warning bell is rung.
